Weatherlogics’ Summer Forecast for 2018

Our summer forecast for temperature, rainfall, and thunderstorms in 2018.

While it may not seem like it right now, spring is just around the corner. Meteorological spring begins on March 1, which has many people wondering what the upcoming summer has in store. We have prepared our outlook for this summer across western Canada – read on to find out more!

The weather pattern during the summer of 2017 was very dry across the southern Prairies. Rainfall totals in Winnipeg and Regina for 2017 were the 2nd or 3rd lowest on record, at only 333.7 mm (13.1 in) and 152.2 mm (6.0 in), respectively. The outlook for 2018 is a continuation of this dry pattern, but we do not expect it to be as dry as last year. The northern Prairies were on the wet side last year, and we expect this to be the case again this summer. The outlook graphic below shows our prediction for rainfall trends for the upcoming summer/growing season across the Canadian Prairies.

Weatherlogics’ summer 2018 precipitation forecast.

In terms of temperature, 2017 was warm across the western Prairies, but near- to slightly-below normal in the eastern Prairies. Like precipitation, this trend is forecast to continue in 2018, with warm conditions again in the southwestern Prairies and near-normal temperatures in the eastern Prairies. The graphic below displays our temperature forecast.

Weatherlogics’ summer 2018 temperature forecast.

Lastly, we have made our prediction for trends in thunderstorm activity across the Prairies. Overall, 2017 was a fairly quiet year for storms relative to 2015 and 2016 on the eastern Prairies. Conversely, the western Prairies were more active, seeing fairly typical thunderstorm activity. The Alberta foothills are an active thunderstorm region almost every year, so this is not an abnormal situation for that region. This year, our forecast for thunderstorms shows a slight rebound in activity across the eastern Prairies, with more activity than 2017. The western Prairies should again be active, with a similar number of storm days to last year.

Weatherlogics’ summer 2018 thunderstorm forecast.

Unfortunately, the impact of this forecast on the growing season is expected to be mostly negative, especially over southern Saskatchewan and into southern Manitoba. Last year was very dry in these regions, but crops remained surprisingly healthy as they were able to draw on residual soil moisture from previous years. This year, the situation will be different, as last year’s dry conditions depleted the reserves of soil moisture. In addition, snowfall this winter has been near record lows across a large swath of the southern Prairies, especially in southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Therefore, if significant rains do not occur at opportune times this year, crops will definitely struggle. Our best hope is for a wet spring to help replenish soil moisture before the heat of summer begins to dry the ground out once again.


The meteorologists at Weatherlogics are experts in weather forecasting and climate analysis. Don’t hesitate to contact us at info@weatherlogics.com if you would like to inquire about our weather solutions.

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